The Vidhan Sabha elections of 2024 have heightened political excitement in Maharashtra and Jharkhand. With polling concluded, major news channels such as Aaj Tak and News18 have released their exit poll projections. This blog delves into the data, analyzing trends, seat share estimates, and potential outcomes in these two key states.


What Are Exit Polls?

Exit polls are surveys conducted after voting to predict election outcomes. By interviewing voters as they leave polling stations, organizations attempt to project seat distributions and public preferences. While not definitive, they provide an early glimpse of likely results.


Maharashtra Exit Poll 2024

Maharashtra, a politically significant state, has seen a contest primarily between the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) alliance and the INDIA bloc, including the Congress-NCP and Shiv Sena (Uddhav faction).

Channel NDA INDIA Bloc Others
Aaj Tak-Axis My India 160-180 seats 110-130 seats 5-10 seats
News18-IPSOS 170-190 seats 100-120 seats 5-15 seats
Republic-Jan Ki Baat 165-185 seats 105-125 seats 0-5 seats

Key Takeaways for Maharashtra:

  1. Urban Dominance for NDA: Urban centers like Mumbai and Pune have heavily favored the NDA.
  2. INDIA Bloc Resilience: Despite internal challenges, the opposition maintains a significant foothold in rural areas.
  3. Regional Dynamics: Marathwada and Vidarbha regions witnessed tight contests, as local issues shaped voter behavior.

Jharkhand Exit Poll 2024

In Jharkhand, the primary contenders are the BJP and the JMM-Congress alliance. The state has seen a robust campaign focused on tribal rights, employment, and development.

Channel NDA JMM-Congress Others
Aaj Tak-Axis My India 40-45 seats 25-30 seats 0-5 seats
News18-C-Voter 38-42 seats 28-32 seats 0-5 seats
Times Now ETG 37-41 seats 29-33 seats 0-4 seats

Key Takeaways for Jharkhand:

  1. Tribal Support Crucial: JMM’s strength lies in tribal belts like Dumka and Khunti.
  2. BJP’s Strong Campaign: BJP made significant inroads, leveraging its development agenda.
  3. Impact of Regional Parties: Smaller parties and independents hold sway in certain pockets.

Analysis by Major News Channels

Aaj Tak:

  • Maharashtra: Emphasizes NDA’s urban advantage and INDIA bloc’s competitive rural strategy.
  • Jharkhand: Highlights JMM-Congress’s reliance on tribal voters but acknowledges BJP’s gains in semi-urban areas.

News18:

  • Maharashtra: Projects NDA’s steady lead, thanks to urban voters and alliances.
  • Jharkhand: Notes BJP’s ability to consolidate non-tribal votes, posing a challenge to the JMM.

Republic TV:

  • Maharashtra: Foresees a comfortable win for the NDA but flags possible surprises in close contests.
  • Jharkhand: Observes a tight race, particularly in constituencies with mixed demographics.

Key Trends and Implications

  1. Polarized Voting Patterns: Urban versus rural dynamics dominate both states, reflecting contrasting voter priorities.
  2. Alliance Strategies: The INDIA bloc’s coordination will determine its ability to counter the BJP-led NDA in tight races.
  3. Leadership Matters: The role of leaders like Eknath Shinde (Maharashtra) and Hemant Soren (Jharkhand) is pivotal in shaping voter sentiment.

The exit poll data from Maharashtra and Jharkhand reflect a complex electoral landscape. While the BJP-led NDA is poised for strong performances, opposition alliances remain competitive in several constituencies. These projections will set the tone for the results, shaping political narratives and strategies moving forward.

For more updates, keep following channels like Aaj Tak, News18, and Republic TV for real-time election analysis.